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U.S. Coronavirus Testing Still Falls Short. How's Your State Doing?

Thursday, May 07, 2020
WBBM News

TO listen to this piece click here

To safely phase out social distancing measures, the U.S. needs more diagnostic testing for the coronavirus, experts say. But how much more?

The Trump administration said on April 27 that the U.S. will soon have enough capacity to conduct double the current amount of testing for active infections. The country has done nearly 248,000 tests daily on average in the past seven days, according to the nonprofit COVID Tracking Project. Doubling that would mean doing about 496,000 a day.

Will that be enough? What benchmark should states try to hit?

One prominent research group, Harvard's Global Health Institute, proposes that the U.S. should be doing more than 900,000 tests per day as a country. This projection, released Thursday, is a big jump from its earlier projection of testing need, which had been between 500,000 and 600,000 daily.

Harvard's testing estimate increased, says Ashish Jha, director of the Global Health Institute, because the latest modeling shows that the outbreak in the United States is worse than projected earlier.

"Just in the last few weeks, all of the models have converged on many more people getting infected and many more people [dying]," he says.

But each state's specific need for testing varies depending on the size of its outbreak, explains Jha. The bigger the outbreak, the more testing is needed.

On Thursday, Jha's group at Harvard published a simulation that estimates the amount of testing needed in each state by May 15. In the graphic below, we compare these estimates with the average numbers of daily tests states are currently doing.

Two ways to assess whether testing is adequate

To make their state-by-state estimates, the Harvard Global Health Institute group started from a model of future case counts. It calculated how much testing would be needed for a state to test all infected people and any close contacts they may have exposed to the virus. (The simulation estimates testing 10 contacts on average.)

"Testing is outbreak control 101, because what testing lets you do is figure out who's infected and who's not," Jha says. "And that lets you separate out the infected people from the noninfected people and bring the disease under control."

This approach is how communities can prevent outbreaks from flaring up. First, test all symptomatic people, then reach out to their close contacts and test them, and finally ask those who are infected or exposed to isolate themselves.

Our chart also shows another testing benchmark for each state: the ratio of tests conducted that come back positive. Communities that see about 10% or fewer positives among their test results are probably testing enough, the World Health Organization advises. If the rate is higher, they're likely missing a lot of active infections.

What is apparent from the data we present below is that many states are far from both the Harvard estimates and the 10% positive benchmark.

Just nine states are near or have exceeded the testing minimums estimated by Harvard; they are mostly larger, less populous states: Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Several states with large outbreaks — New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut, among others — are very far from the minimum testing target. Some states that are already relaxing their social distancing restrictions, such as Georgia, Texas and Colorado, are far from the target too.

Jha offers several caveats about his group's estimates.

Estimates are directional, not literal

Researchers at the Global Health Initiative at Harvard considered three different models of the U.S. coronavirus outbreak as a starting point for their testing estimates. They found that while there was significant variation in the projections of outbreak sizes, all of the models tend to point in the same direction, i.e., if one model showed that a state needed significantly more testing, the others generally did too.

The model they used to create these estimates is the Youyang Gu COVID-19 Forecasts, which they say has tracked closely with what's actually happened on the ground. Still, the researchers caution, these numbers are not meant to be taken literally but as a guide.

If social distancing is relaxed, testing needs may grow

The Harvard testing estimates are built on a model that assumes that states continue social distancing through May 15. And about half of states have already started lifting some of those.

Jha says that without the right measures in place to contain spread, easing up could quickly lead to new cases.

"The moment you relax, the number of cases will start climbing. And therefore, the number of tests you need to keep your society, your state from having large outbreaks will also start climbing," warns Jha.

Testing alone is not enough

A community can't base the decision that it's safe to open up on testing data alone. States should also see a consistent decline in the number of cases, of two weeks at least, according to White House guidance. If their cases are instead increasing, they should assume the number of tests they need will increase too.

And, Jha warns, testing is step one, but it won't contain an outbreak by itself. It needs to be part of "a much broader set of strategies and plans the states need to have in place" when they begin to reopen.

In fact, his group's model is built on the assumption that states are doing contact tracing and have plans to support isolation for infected or exposed people.

"I don't want anybody to just look at the number and say, we meet it and we're good to go," he says. "What this really is, is testing capacity in the context of having a really effective workforce of contact tracers."

The targets are floors, not goals

States that have reached the estimated target should think of that as a starting point.

"We've always built these as the floor, the bare minimum," Jha says. More testing would be even better, allowing states to more rapidly tamp down case surges.

In fact, other experts have proposed that the U.S. do even more testing. Paul Romer, a professor of economics at New York University, proposed in a recent white paper that if the U.S. tested every resident, every two weeks, isolating those who test positive, it could stop the pandemic in its tracks.

Jha warns that without sufficient testing, and the infrastructure in place to trace and isolate contacts, there's a real risk that states — even those with few cases now — will see new large outbreaks. "I think what people have to remember is that the virus isn't gone. The disease isn't gone. And it's going to be with us for a while," he says.

How Much Testing Does Your State Need To Contain ItsOutbreak?

Harvard’s Global Health Institute estimated minimum targets for how much testing each state needs by May 15 to contain its outbreak through a strategy of testing, tracing and isolating positive cases and their contacts. Death rates are provided as a marker of outbreak size. A positive test ratio of 10% or less is the target advised by the World Health Organization. States with higher ratios may not be testing enough, or testing a diverse enough pool ofpeople.

Outbreak: In Alabama, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Alabama currently averages 4,152 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 6.0% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 343 deaths 7 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
4,152 tests 85 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 8,817 tests 180 per 100K

Outbreak: In Alaska, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Alaska currently averages 648 tests per day — more than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 0.4% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 10 deaths 1 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
648 tests 89 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 85 tests 12 per 100K

Outbreak: In Arizona, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Arizona currently averages 3,275 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 10.9% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 426 deaths 6 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
3,275 tests 45 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 10,743 tests 148 per 100K

Outbreak: In Arkansas, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Arkansas currently averages 1,936 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 2.8% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 87 deaths 3 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
1,936 tests 64 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 2,825 tests 94 per 100K

Outbreak: In California, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: California currently averages 29,414 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 6.0% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 2,464 deaths 6 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
29,414 tests 74 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 42,524 tests 108 per 100K

Outbreak: In Colorado, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Colorado currently averages 2,361 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 15.9% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 919 deaths 16 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
2,361 tests 41 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 22,942 tests 398 per 100K

Outbreak: In Connecticut, the COVID-19 outbreak has been severe relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Connecticut currently averages 2,376 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 25.4% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 2,718 deaths 76 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
2,376 tests 67 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 29,288 tests 821 per 100K

Outbreak: In Delaware, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Delaware currently averages 704 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 22.8% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 193 deaths 20 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
704 tests 72 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 5,887 tests 605 per 100K

Outbreak: In the District of Columbia, the COVID-19 outbreak has been moderate relative to the district's population size.

Testing vs. Target: The District of Columbia currently averages 822 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 23.5% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 277 deaths 39 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
822 tests 116 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 5,857 tests 830 per 100K

Outbreak: In Florida, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Florida currently averages 15,223 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 4.5% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 1,539 deaths 7 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
15,223 tests 71 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 23,937 tests 111 per 100K

Outbreak: In Georgia, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Georgia currently averages 8,600 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 8.5% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 1,327 deaths 12 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
8,600 tests 81 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 25,979 tests 245 per 100K

Outbreak: In Hawaii, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Hawaii currently averages 797 tests per day — more than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 0.3% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 17 deaths 1 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
797 tests 56 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 164 tests 12 per 100K

Outbreak: In Idaho, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Idaho currently averages 309 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 8.1% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 66 deaths 4 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
309 tests 17 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 1,032 tests 58 per 100K

Outbreak: In Illinois, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Illinois currently averages 14,942 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 17.1% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 2,974 deaths 23 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
14,942 tests 118 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 64,167 tests 506 per 100K

Outbreak: In Indiana, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Indiana currently averages 4,135 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 16.2% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 1,377 deaths 20 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
4,135 tests 61 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 28,829 tests 428 per 100K

Outbreak: In Iowa, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Iowa currently averages 3,119 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 16.3% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 219 deaths 7 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
3,119 tests 99 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 10,266 tests 325 per 100K

Outbreak: In Kansas, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Kansas currently averages 1,808 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 15.8% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 164 deaths 6 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
1,808 tests 62 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 2,812 tests 97 per 100K

Outbreak: In Kentucky, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Kentucky currently averages 1,229 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 16.8% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 283 deaths 6 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
1,229 tests 28 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 4,642 tests 104 per 100K

Outbreak: In Louisiana, the COVID-19 outbreak has been moderate relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Louisiana currently averages 5,443 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 7.2% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 2,167 deaths 47 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
5,443 tests 117 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 21,988 tests 473 per 100K

Outbreak: In Maine, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Maine currently averages 392 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 7.2% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 62 deaths 5 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
392 tests 29 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 1,805 tests 134 per 100K

Outbreak: In Maryland, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Maryland currently averages 4,726 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 22.1% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 1,437 deaths 24 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
4,726 tests 78 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 27,925 tests 462 per 100K

Outbreak: In Massachusetts, the COVID-19 outbreak has been severe relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Massachusetts currently averages 10,574 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 15.9% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 4,420 deaths 64 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
10,574 tests 153 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 71,748 tests 1,041 per 100K

Outbreak: In Michigan, the COVID-19 outbreak has been moderate relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Michigan currently averages 8,697 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 7.6% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 4,256 deaths 43 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
8,697 tests 87 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 58,081 tests 582 per 100K

Outbreak: In Minnesota, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Minnesota currently averages 3,784 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 14.9% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 485 deaths 9 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
3,784 tests 67 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 13,853 tests 246 per 100K

Outbreak: In Mississippi, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Mississippi currently averages 2,062 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 12.8% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 374 deaths 13 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
2,062 tests 69 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 7,770 tests 261 per 100K

Outbreak: In Missouri, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Missouri currently averages 3,370 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 7.1% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 428 deaths 7 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
3,370 tests 55 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 9,786 tests 159 per 100K

Outbreak: In Montana, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Montana currently averages 882 tests per day — more than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 0.1% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 16 deaths 1 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
882 tests 83 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 124 tests 12 per 100K

Outbreak: In Nebraska, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Nebraska currently averages 1,785 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 24.5% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 78 deaths 4 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
1,785 tests 92 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 2,698 tests 139 per 100K

Outbreak: In Nevada, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Nevada currently averages 1,178 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 9.3% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 289 deaths 9 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
1,178 tests 38 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 5,307 tests 172 per 100K

Outbreak: In New Hampshire, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: New Hampshire currently averages 998 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 9.0% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 92 deaths 7 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
998 tests 73 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 2,632 tests 194 per 100K

Outbreak: In New Jersey, the COVID-19 outbreak has been severe relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: New Jersey currently averages 6,800 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 32.8% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 8,549 deaths 96 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
6,800 tests 77 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 98,378 tests 1,108 per 100K

Outbreak: In New Mexico, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: New Mexico currently averages 3,072 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 5.4% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 169 deaths 8 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
3,072 tests 147 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 5,193 tests 248 per 100K

Outbreak: In New York, the COVID-19 outbreak has been severe relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: New York currently averages 22,345 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 13.8% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 25,623 deaths 132 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
22,345 tests 115 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 112,802 tests 580 per 100K

Outbreak: In North Carolina, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: North Carolina currently averages 6,577 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 6.1% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 492 deaths 5 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
6,577 tests 63 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 10,289 tests 98 per 100K

Outbreak: In North Dakota, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: North Dakota currently averages 1,871 tests per day — more than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 2.2% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 31 deaths 4 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
1,871 tests 246 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 913 tests 120 per 100K

Outbreak: In Ohio, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Ohio currently averages 5,717 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 10.7% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 1,225 deaths 10 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
5,717 tests 49 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 26,103 tests 223 per 100K

Outbreak: In Oklahoma, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Oklahoma currently averages 3,089 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 3.4% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 253 deaths 6 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
3,089 tests 78 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 5,408 tests 137 per 100K

Outbreak: In Oregon, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Oregon currently averages 1,929 tests per day — close to the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 3.5% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 115 deaths 3 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
1,929 tests 46 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 2,139 tests 51 per 100K

Outbreak: In Pennsylvania, the COVID-19 outbreak has been moderate relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Pennsylvania currently averages 5,922 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 18.0% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 3,345 deaths 26 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
5,922 tests 46 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 62,532 tests 488 per 100K

Outbreak: In Rhode Island, the COVID-19 outbreak has been moderate relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Rhode Island currently averages 2,744 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 10.2% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 370 deaths 35 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
2,744 tests 259 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 6,723 tests 635 per 100K

Outbreak: In South Carolina, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: South Carolina currently averages 3,324 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 4.5% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 305 deaths 6 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
3,324 tests 65 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 8,846 tests 172 per 100K

Outbreak: In South Dakota, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: South Dakota currently averages 369 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 15.7% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 29 deaths 3 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
369 tests 42 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 927 tests 105 per 100K

Outbreak: In Tennessee, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Tennessee currently averages 8,365 tests per day — more than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 6.1% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 239 deaths 3 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
8,365 tests 122 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 3,266 tests 48 per 100K

Outbreak: In Texas, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Texas currently averages 17,735 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 5.9% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 954 deaths 3 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
17,735 tests 61 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 27,282 tests 94 per 100K

Outbreak: In Utah, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Utah currently averages 3,603 tests per day — more than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 4.4% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 58 deaths 2 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
3,603 tests 112 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 2,022 tests 63 per 100K

Outbreak: In Vermont, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Vermont currently averages 350 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 1.9% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 52 deaths 8 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
350 tests 56 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 897 tests 144 per 100K

Outbreak: In Virginia, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Virginia currently averages 3,967 tests per day — far fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 19.1% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 713 deaths 8 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
3,967 tests 46 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 16,664 tests 195 per 100K

Outbreak: In Washington, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Washington currently averages 5,277 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 4.7% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 870 deaths 11 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
5,277 tests 69 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 6,656 tests 87 per 100K

Outbreak: In West Virginia, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: West Virginia currently averages 1,816 tests per day — close to the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 1.2% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 50 deaths 3 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
1,816 tests 101 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 1,857 tests 104 per 100K

Outbreak: In Wisconsin, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Wisconsin currently averages 3,368 tests per day — fewer than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 10.1% of tests have come back positive. This exceeds the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 362 deaths 6 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
3,368 tests 58 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 3,974 tests 68 per 100K

Outbreak: In Wyoming, the COVID-19 outbreak has been mild relative to the state's population size.

Testing vs. Target: Wyoming currently averages 399 tests per day — more than the estimated minimum needed by May 15.

Positive Test Ratio: In the past week, 2.4% of tests have come back positive. This meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower.

Actual numbers Population-adjusted
COVID-19 deaths 7 deaths 1 per 100K
Daily testing (7-day average)
April 30-May 6
399 tests 69 per 100K
Minimum daily testing needed by May 15 67 tests 12 per 100K

See How All The States Are Doing

To sort the table, click or tap the column headers.

Location
Size of outbreak Deaths per 100K
Current Daily Testing vs. Target Tests per 100K
Positive Test Ratio Target: 10% or less
New Jersey N.J.
96
7777
32.8%32.8%
Massachusetts Mass.
64
153153
15.9%15.9%
District of Columbia D.C.
39
116116
23.5%23.5%
Connecticut Conn.
76
6767
25.4%25.4%
Rhode Island R.I.
35
259259
10.2%10.2%
Delaware Del.
20
7272
22.8%22.8%
Michigan Mich.
43
8787
7.6%7.6%
New York N.Y.
132
115115
13.8%13.8%
Illinois Ill.
23
118118
17.1%17.1%
Pennsylvania Pa.
26
4646
18.0%18.0%
Louisiana La.
47
117117
7.2%7.2%
Maryland Md.
24
7878
22.1%22.1%
Indiana Ind.
20
6161
16.2%16.2%
Colorado Colo.
16
4141
15.9%15.9%
Iowa Iowa
7
9999
16.3%16.3%
Mississippi Miss.
13
6969
12.8%12.8%
New Mexico N.M.
8
147147
5.4%5.4%
Minnesota Minn.
9
6767
14.9%14.9%
Georgia Ga.
12
8181
8.5%8.5%
Ohio Ohio
10
4949
10.7%10.7%
Virginia Va.
8
4646
19.1%19.1%
New Hampshire N.H.
7
7373
9.0%9.0%
Alabama Ala.
7
8585
6.0%6.0%
South Carolina S.C.
6
6565
4.5%4.5%
Nevada Nev.
9
3838
9.3%9.3%
Missouri Mo.
7
5555
7.1%7.1%
Arizona Ariz.
6
4545
10.9%10.9%
Vermont Vt.
8
5656
1.9%1.9%
Nebraska Neb.
4
9292
24.5%24.5%
Oklahoma Okla.
6
7878
3.4%3.4%
Maine Maine
5
2929
7.2%7.2%
North Dakota N.D.
4
246246
2.2%2.2%
Florida Fla.
7
7171
4.5%4.5%
California Calif.
6
7474
6.0%6.0%
South Dakota S.D.
3
4242
15.7%15.7%
West Virginia W.Va.
3
101101
1.2%1.2%
Kentucky Ky.
6
2828
16.8%16.8%
North Carolina N.C.
5
6363
6.1%6.1%
Kansas Kan.
6
6262
15.8%15.8%
Texas Texas
3
6161
5.9%5.9%
Arkansas Ark.
3
6464
2.8%2.8%
Washington Wash.
11
6969
4.7%4.7%
Wisconsin Wis.
6
5858
10.1%10.1%
Utah Utah
2
112112
4.4%4.4%
Idaho Idaho
4
1717
8.1%8.1%
Oregon Ore.
3
4646
3.5%3.5%
Tennessee Tenn.
3
122122
6.1%6.1%
Wyoming Wyo.
1
6969
2.4%2.4%
Montana Mont.
1
8383
0.1%0.1%
Hawaii Hawaii
1
5656
0.3%0.3%
Alaska Alaska
1
8989
0.4%0.4%

Notes: Deaths are as of May 6. Testing figures are an average of data reported April 30-May 6. Data quality varies by state. (For example, some states report specimens tested rather than people, so their testing counts may be inflated.)



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